COMCEC Trade Outlook 2017
10
Commodity prices, in particular fuels, declined sharply starting from June 2014. Oil prices
(Brent) declined by almost 50 percent from 98.9 dollar per barrel in 2014 to 52.4 dollar per
barrel 2015 mainly due to the shale oil production in US and oversupply in global oil markets.
Although oil prices bottomed out 30 dollars per barrel in January 2016, they recovered partially
in the second half of the year and ended the year 54 dollars per barrel owing to the agreement
by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers to cut oil
production and expectations for stronger future global demand.10 Oil prices averaged 44 dollars
per barrel in 2016 down from 52.4 dollars per barrel in 2015.
Figure 8: Monthly Oil (Brent) Prices
Source: IMF Commodity Prices database
Figure 9 shows the evolution of total OIC fuels and non-fuels exports versus oil price
developments. Fuels exports are highly volatile depending on the oil price movements. As a
result, OIC fuels exports have been contracted severely over the last three years. OIC non fuels
exports have been weak in the same period however the magnitude of fall being quite smaller.
Figure 9: Evolution of OIC Fuels and Non-Fuels Exports versus Oil Prices
Source: UNCTAD STAT database
10 IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2017: Gaining Momentum?
108
112
87
78
62
48
65
56
47
31
39
47 50
47
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2014M12014M22014M32014M42014M52014M62014M72014M82014M92014M102014M112014M122015M12015M22015M32015M42015M52015M62015M72015M82015M92015M102015M112015M122016M12016M22016M32016M42016M52016M62016M72016M82016M92016M102016M112016M122017M12017M22017M32017M42017M52017M6
dollars per barrel
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2007:100 Index
Fuels (SITC 3) Non Fuel Oil Prices