COMCEC Trade Outlook 2019

downward trend is expected to continue in 2019, with trade projected to grow by just 2.6 per

cent

Heightened trade tensions cannot be the only cause of the trade slowdown in 2018 but they

undoubtedly played a significant role as slower trade growth coincided with announced or

anticipated trade actions, such as tariff raising, by governments.

Trade and output were also influenced by temporary

shocks, such as the federal government shutdown in the

United States and production problems in the automotive

sector in Germany towards the end of the year. These

incidents were likely to have transitory effects, causing

consumers and businesses to postpone purchases and

production decisions rather than cancelling them

outright

Figure 4: Tariffs and Non-tariff Measures

Source: Reprinted from” Evolution of the International Trading System and Its Trends from a Development

Perspective” UNCTAD, Trade and Development Board, TD/B/64/5, Sixty-fourth session, 3 July 2017. Retrieved

from

There have been some emerging patterns shaping the global trading environment recently.

First

trend

is the proliferation of non-tariff barriers. The Figure above which is taken from UNCTAD

(2017) provides data for 1995-2015 period and illustrates that while tariffs have declined

considerably in the 2000s, little progress was achieved in terms of further declines in tariffs

since the global crisis.

The number of non-tariff measures continue to rise especially in the aftermath of the crisis.

Slower pace of trade liberalization and increased protectionist measures are considered among

factors which constrain world trade. According toWTO

, WTOmembers introducedmore trade-

World Trade Statistical Review 2019

“

Heightened trade

tensions cannot be the

only cause of the trade

slowdown

2018”