COMCEC Trade Outlook 2019
11
these cuts until the end of 2018. Thus, oil prices which averaged to 52.8 USD per barrel in 2017
recovered strongly to 77 USD per barrel in November 2018 which was the highest price since
December 2014. However, oil prices are still well below their peak levels of 118 USD achieved
in March 2012.
Figure 9: Monthly Oil Prices (nominal)
Source: World Bank Commodity Prices database Note: Average of Brent, Dubai and WTI.
Figure 10 shows the evolution of total OIC fuels and non-fuels exports versus oil price
developments. Fuels exports are highly volatile depending on the oil price movements. As a
result, OIC fuels exports contracted severely in 2015 following the oil price collapse but bounced
back in 2017 as oil prices increased. However it should be noted that OIC fuels exports in 2017
and 2018 are almost half of their levels in 2012. Meantime, OIC non fuels exports continued to
increase in 2018 as the global activity increases.
Figure 10: Evolution of OIC Fuels and Non-Fuels Exports versus Oil Prices
Source: Source: UNCTAD STAT Database and IMF Primary Commodity Prices
102
108
47
62
30
54
46
66
77
69
58
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2014M12014M32014M52014M72014M9
2014M11
2015M12015M32015M52015M72015M9
2015M112016M12016M32016M52016M72016M9
2016M11
2017M12017M32017M52017M72017M9
2017M11
2018M12018M32018M52018M72018M9
2018M11
2019M12019M32019M52019M7
USD per barrel
0
50
100
150
200
250
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2009: 100 Index
Fuels (SITC 3) Non Fuel Oil Prices