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COMCEC Trade Outlook 2019
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The increase in exports was mostly driven by high energy prices while Asia was the main
contributor to an increase in global imports.
World merchandise exports of fuels and mining products, manufactured goods and agriculture
grew by 23 per cent, 8 per cent and 5 per cent respectively. Developing economies exported a
total of US$ 8,779 billion in 2018, of which US$ 193 billion were from least developed countries
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.
According to the World Bank, the slowdown in the growth of merchandise trade volume in 2018
was broad-based, reflecting weaker import and export shipments globally, although some
country groupings were more affected by the slowdown than others.
Weaker trade growth was most evident in the fourth quarter of 2018, when export volumes
declined by 0.1 per cent and import volumes dropped 0.5 per cent due to the several factors,
including new tariffs and retaliatory measures affecting widely-traded goods, weaker global
economic growth, volatility in financial markets and tighter monetary conditions in developed
countries, among others.
Table 1: Trade Volume and GDP, Annual % change
2016
2017
2018
Volume of world merchandise trade
1,6
4,6
3,0
Exports
Developed Economies
1,0
3,6
2,1
Developing Economies
2,3
5,6
3,5
North America
0,3
4,2
4,3
Europe
1,2
3,7
1,6
Asia
2,3
6,8
3,8
Imports
Developed Economies
2,0
3,3
2,5
Developing Economies
1,3
6,8
4,1
North America
0,1
4,0
5,0
Europe
3,1
2,9
1,1
Asia
3,6
8,3
5,0
World output (real GDP at market exchange rates)
2,4
3,0
2,9
Developed Economies
1,7
2,3
2,2
Developing Economies
3,7
4,3
4,1
North America
1,6
2,3
2,8
Europe
2,0
2,7
2,0
Asia
4,1
4,5
4,3
Source: WTO
1.1. Recent Trends in World Merchandise Trade
The World Bank highlighted that mounting trade tensions, an increase in trade-restrictive
measures and continuing economic uncertainty created real challenges for world trade in 2018.
These factors and a deceleration in overall economic activity slowed momentum in global trade,
restricting merchandise trade growth to 3 per cent compared with 4.6 per cent in 2017. This
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World Trade Statistical Review 2019