COMCEC Trade Outlook 2016
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2. TRADE BETWEEN OIC AND THE WORLD
Although total OIC exports bounced back rapidly from
the global crisis owing to increases in global economic
activity and oil prices, it remained subdued around 2.2
trillion dollars over the 2012 and 2014 period.
However total OIC exports fell sharply by 24.8 per cent
to USD 1.6 trillion in 2015. On the other hand total OIC
imports which continued to increase modestly over the
2012 and 2014 period, fell by 8.6 per cent to USD 1.8
trillion in 2015. Thus total OIC trade fell by 17 per cent
to USD 3.4 trillion in 2015 from USD 4.1 trillion in 2014.
Several factors accounted for the decline in total OIC exports in 2015 including the sluggish pace
of world demand growth especially in emerging Asia, the sharp fall in commodity prices in
particular the collapse in oil prices, exchange rate fluctuations and ongoing political transition
in many countries in Middle East.
Growth performance and rebalancing of Chinese economy away from manufacturing and
investment to services and consumption being the main export market for OIC Member States
is particularly important as further slowdown in Chinese growth might have negative
implications on OIC exports. Chinese economymaintained a remarkable growth by growing 10.8
per cent annually between 2003 and 2011 which lead the surge in commodity prices in 2000s.
However the pace of growth started to slowdown since 2012. Chinese growth in the last four
years (2012-2015) averaged to 7.4 per cent and estimated to be slowing further in the coming
years. This could have spillovers on OIC exports via downward pressure on commodity prices
and lower import demand.
Figure 9: Total OIC Exports and Imports
Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics
“Total OIC exports fell
sharply by 25.4 per cent in
2015 mostly on account of
collapse in oil prices and
weak global demand ”