8
COMCEC Agriculture Outlook 2019
For all three of the sub-regions, average yearly agricultural growths stayed behind their
overall economic growths during the 2004-2016 period. Nevertheless, in all three sub-regions,
agricultural growth rate during this period was higher compared to the world.
1.3 Population
Population in theworld has reached 7.8 billion people and is projected toclimb to over 9 billion
by 2050. United Nations Population Funds (UNFPA) explains this dramatic growth with
increasing numbers of people surviving to reproductive age which is accompanied by major
changes in fertility rates, increasing urbanization and accelerating migration.
According to Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) the total population of the OIC was
about 1.8 billion in 2017. This constituted almost a quarter of the world population. Although
its share in total population has been decreasing from year to year, more than half of the OIC
member countries’ population is still living in rural areas. Furthermore, over 60 percent of the
people living in rural areas are engaged in agricultural activities.
Agriculture sector should provide enough food for the growing population in the world and
especially in the OIC. In the last decade, the agricultural GDP expanded globally by an average of
2.61 percent a year, more than the population growth of 1.26 percent. In the same period, OIC
Member Countries have experienced yearly 3.38 percent growth in agricultural GDP, and 2.02
percent of growth in population. Therefore, both in the OIC and world, the growth rate in
agriculture sector is higher than the growth rate in population which enables to feedmuchmore
people.
Table 4 Population Growth Rate in the OIC and in theWorld
Period African Group Arab Group Asian Group OIC World
(1995-2005) 2.71 2.19 1.71 2.04 1.32
(2005-2016) 2.83 2.32 1.53 2.01 1.20
(1995-2018) 2.83 2.85 1.48 2.41 1.26
Source: Annex 7
Table 4 presents the sub-regional average yearly growths in 10 year periods within the last
two decades in OIC member countries. Compared to the world, all three OIC sub-regions have
experienced higher rates of population growth in the last two decades. Among the regions,
African Group’s average yearly population growth was the highest in the periods of 1995 -2005
and 2005-2016, with 2.71 percent and 2.83 percent, respectively. Furthermore, African Group
was the only group whose average yearly population growth has risen (more than two times
higher than the world’s population growth) during the last decade. The lowest population
growth was observed in the Asian Groupwith 1.71 percent in 1995-2005, 1.53 percent in 2005 -
2016 and 1.48 percent in 1995-2018 periods.
While the rural population of the OIC member countries was 696 million people in 1995 with
60.3 percent share in total population, it increased to almost 901 million people, constituted
50 percent of the total OIC population in 2017. The main reason of decreasing the rural
population share was that the increase in rural populationwas lower than the increase in total
population throughout the years. This reflects that worldwide trend of urbanization is also
observable for the OIC member countries, in general.