Increasing the Resilience of the Food Systems

In Islamic States in Face of Future Food Crises

Decreasing incomes and increasing food prices also have a negative effect on the nutritional

quality and safety of food. The coping strategies used by households—including eating less food

at meals or skipping meals entirely—reduces diet diversity and density of nutrients. Studies

have shown that climate shocks in Bangladesh and Indonesia caused losses in rice production

and increases in rice prices, which is strongly correlated with poorer dietary diversity. Rising

temperatures and rainfall intensity can compromise food safety, causing mold, pest , and fungi

growth, in turn leading to crop contamination. The multiplication rate of certain foodborne

pathogens, such as salmonella spp.—which was responsible for 20,000 deaths in 2010—is

affected by climate issues.

According to the

Global Food Crisis Report 2017

, conflict was a main cause of severe food

insecurity for more than 63 million people in 13 countries. Conflict and instability lead to

economic recessions and spikes in food prices, negatively impacting food availability and access,

and weakening social protection and health care systems. A study of annual data for 179

countries from 1970 to 2014 concluded that conflict affected economic growth substantially,

especially in the case of high-intensity conflicts in which affected countries’ GDP decreased by

8.4% per year on average. In countries with less intense conflicts, the decrease averaged 1.2%.

With respect to conflict duration, it was estimated that, after three years, countries incurred an

average GDP loss of between 4% and 9% per year. The study also suggested spillover effects on

neighboring countries’ economies.

2.1.

Food System Stability Pillars – Global Overview

According to the Global Food Security Index, North America and Europe have the best

performance in 2017, with average scores of 78 and 76, respectively. They are followed closely

by the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, with an average overall score of 73. The Middle East

and North Africa both had an average score of 62. Asia, the Pacific, and the Central and South

American regions had an average overall score of 58. The lowest performing region was Sub -

Saharan Africa, which had an average score of 39. The following graph highlights the variations

in affordability, availability, and quality and safety components among the different regions

included in the index. As the graph shows, Sub-Saharan Africa consistently scores the lowest on

all three dimensions. In general, regions have similar scores on the three dimensions (with 1 to

3 points difference

), with the exception of Sub-Saharan Africa, which has a significantly higher

score on availability (47) than on either quality and safety (38) or affordability (30).

FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP andWHO. (2018). The State of Food Security and Nutrition in theWorld 2018: Building climate

resilience for food security and nutrition. Retrieved

Ibid.

Analysis based on Global Food Security Index scores.