Increasing the Resilience of the Food Systems
In Islamic States in Face of Future Food Crises
30
The table below gives an overview of the scores of the 10 lowest performing OIC countries in
the natural resources and resilience category according to the Global Food Security Index. In
addition to the six countries already present in the global performance section, Tajikistan,
Malaysia, Mozambique and Syria also made the list. It is worth noting that Yemen, United Arab
Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan are the worst performing countries on the water
dimension of the resilience category globally.
Table 10: Global Food Security Index - Resilience Category Lowest Performing OIC Countries
Global
Ranking
Country Overall
Score
Exposure Water Land Oceans Sensitivity Adaptive
Capacity
Demographic
Stresses
96 Tajikistan 52.0 58.0 33.6 83.2 100.0 30.2 16.7 45.5
=97 Malaysia 51.9 56.9 64.7 78.7 33.9 49.7 25.0 59.1
=97 Mozambique 51.9 65.9 71.7 83.2 53.6 30.7 16.7 25.1
100 Syria 51.3 58.8 37.2 88.4 65.6 41.3 16.7 58.7
106 Yemen 48.2 56.6 17.0 85.5 65.7 35.7 33.3 35.6
=107 Oman 46.9 46.3 35.7 87.9 45.2 41.6 41.7 13.4
=107 Saudi Arabia 46.9 54.3 15.2 79.3 35.8 49.1 41.7 51.8
109 Bahrain 46.6 37.9 34.0 82.7 57.0 41.5 50.0 6.4
111 Indonesia 43.9 54.1 39.7 57.6 33.4 55.7 16.7 62.9
113 United Arab
Emirates
40.7 46.0 16.6 66.6 16.5 55.7 33.3 59.2
Global
Average 62.2 63.3 55.0 82.9 59.7 54.0 58.1 58.4
Source: The Global Food Security Index
Food Insecurity Drivers – Potential Food Security Crises
According to UN population projections, the world population is expected to increase from 7.6
billion in 2017 to 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100. It is expected that almost all of the
increase in population will be in developing countries and primarily in urban areas (with 70%
of the world's population living in urban areas by 2050). Demand for food and feed is expected
to increase significantly which, in addition to the potential increase in the use crops for biofuel
and other industrial purposes, poses a threat to food security. While the Southern hemisphere
countries are not chiefly responsible for climate change, they stand tobear the greatest damages
in terms of decreasing harvests and higher frequencies of extreme weather events. It is
estimated that climate changewill affect African countries' agricultural yields between 15%and
30% up to 2080-2100. Agriculture is also expected to compete for the already scarce resources
(land and water) with the growing urban communities.75
A recent study by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) posits that climate
change challenges are “manageable” up to 2050. The study asserts that investing in enhancing
land and water productivity can significantly mitigate the effects of climate change. However,
the study also suggests that the effects of climate change post-2050 may be unmanageable—
even with a slowing population growth rate—due to the increase in average temperatures
affecting crop yields. According to the study, the persisting income inequality between
developed and developing countries, with many in the developing world living under the
poverty line, combined with climate change can precipitate food security crises in poor
countries.76 The following sections present an examination of the policies used by best practice
75 FAO. (2009). How to Feed theWorld in 2050.
76 Nelson, Gerald, C. et al. (2010). Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050: Scenarios, Results, PolicyOptions.
IFPRI.