COMCEC Trade Outlook 2016
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1. DEVELOPMENTS IN GLOBAL TRADE
World merchandise trade (in dollar terms) grew at an annual average rate of 12.2 per cent
between 2000 and 2008 period. After a speedy recovery from the global crisis, world trade
growth has been weak over the last three years, and recorded a sharp decline of 13 percent in
2015 falling to 16.5 trillion US dollars down from 19 trillion US dollars in 2014.
Figure 1: Global Trade
Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics
Despite the sharp decline in world trade value, world trade volume (accounted for changes in
prices and exchange rates) continued to grow by 2.8 per cent in 2015. The sharp decline in the
dollar value of world trade despite the slow growth in volume terms was mostly due to the
falling commodity prices and the depreciation of currencies against the US dollar in 20151.
It should be noted however that world trade growth has stayed below its long-term average in
the last five years. World trade slowdown in 2015 was attributed to several factors including
ongoing weak global demand, falling oil and other commodity prices, and China’s shift to a new
growth model. Demand was especially weak in emerging economies in particular China Brazil
and Russia (WB, 2016). China’s slower growth compared to previous decade and shift away
from investment and manufacturing to consumption and services resulted in a lower import
demand especially for minerals and metals. Moreover, strengthening dollar and falling
commodity prices were among other factors that weighed on world trade in 2015 (IMF WEO,
2016). Measured in national currency units trade values either stayed the same or fell at a
smaller magnitude when compared to trade in dollar terms.
1 WTO 2016