COMCEC Trade Outlook 2016
4
Table 1: Trade Volume and GDP, Annual % change
Source: WTO
Additionally some structural changes such as slower pace of trade liberalization and the
maturation of global value chains also contributed to recent world trade slowdown. Yet short
term factors are estimated to have the lion’s share in world trade slowdown.2
IMF3 discusses also in detail structural factors that might have affected the world trade. It points
to a structural shift in the relation between the growth of world GDP and world trade as
observed in the income elasticity of trade (the ratio of trade growth to GDP growth). While the
income elasticity of world trade was 2.0 for the period 1986 to 2000, it declined to 1.3 for the
period 2001 to 2014. This means world trade became less responsive to GDP growth. The
decrease in income elasticity of trade is explained partly by the slowing pace of fragmentation
of production into global value chains.
2 For a more detailed discussion see Constantinescu, Ileana Cristina; Mattoo, Aaditya; Ruta, Michele. 2016. Global
trade watch: trade developments in 2015 . Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group.
2015
3 IMF WEO 2015 Chapter 1.
2013 2014 2015
Volume of world trade 2.4 2.8 2.8
Exports
Developed economies 1.7 2.4 2.6
Developing and emerging economies 3.8 3.1 3.3
North America 2.8 4.1 0.8
Europe 1.7 2.0 3.7
Asia 5.0 4.8 3.1
Imports
Developed economies -0.2 3.5 4.5
Developing and emerging economies 5.0 2.1 0.2
North America 1.2 4.7 6.5
Europe -0.3 3.2 4.3
Asia 4.8 3.3 1.8
World Output real GDP at market exchange rates (2005) 2.2 2.5 2.4
Developed economies 1.0 1.7 1.9
Developing and emerging economies 4.5 4.2 3.4
North America 1.5 2.4 2.3
Europe 0.4 1.5 1.9
Asia 4.4 4.0 4.0