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Education of Disadvantaged Children in OIC:

The Key to Escape from Poverty

259

D.

Finishing 8 years of education (16-18 year olds)

Note: Authors’ calculations using DHS 1990 and 2012

Probit regressions

The second analysis used in the report is the probit regression method. The effect of

circumstances on school attendance and finishing school for children is measured using probit

regression making use of the most recent DHS dataset and another DHS dataset from 10 years

ago or more for each country. These regressions show the degree of the effect of circumstances

and which circumstances continue to matter. The probit equation that was used is as follows:

( ) = (

)

The circumstance variables X that are used in the probit regression is the same as the variables

that are used in HOI. These are location of the household, region of the household,

ethnicity/language (when available), gender of the child, education level of the household head

and household wealth.

Probit Results

Regression results show that circumstances continue to have a large impact on education

indicators of children.

Especially wealth has the largest impact and there has been almost no

progress and in some cases even deterioration for the poorest. In contrast, Pakistan seems to be

successful in tackling the disadvantaged situation of girls in access to education while there is

still a long way to go to make gender a circumstance that has no impact on education

opportunities. In summary the results are as follows:

Living in rural areas does not have any significantly large marginal effect on education

indicators in Pakistan.

There are regional disparities and Sindh and Balochistan are the regions that affect the

education opportunities the most negatively.

Being a girl still decreases the chances of going to school and finishing school but its

negative impact decreased throughout the years.

Poor children and children whose household head has no education continues to decrease

the likelihood of attending school or finishing school in very large degrees. The

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Rural

Urban

Balochistan

Sindh

Khyber…

Punjab

No education

Primary education

Secondary…

Higher Education

5 or more children

3-4 children

1-2 children

Quint 1 (Poorest)

Quint 2

Quint 3

Quint 4

Quint 5 (Richest)

Non-Urdu

Urdu

Female

Male

TOTAL

finishing 8 years of education (% of 16-18

year olds)

1990 2012