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Reviewing Agricultural Trade Policies

To Promote Intra-OIC Agricultural Trade

54

Asian countries. This section aims to explore potential trade promotion possibilities across the

OIC countries as a whole (rather than within the country groups) in order to reveal possibilities

in enhancing intra-OIC trade in agricultural products.

The first part of the analysis presented in Section 3.4.1 is at the product division and regional

levels. In order to identify unexploited potential trade matches at the product level, a simple

graphical layout (quadrant scatter graph) is devised to highlight the key product divisions that

can be targeted for the promotion of intra-OIC agricultural trade. The central idea of the scatter

graph layout is to identify key product divisions to promote intra-OIC trade.

In the scatter graph, the x-axis presents the “share of intraregional trade in OIC countries’

agricultural imports” of the product (i.e., the percentage share of intra-OIC product imports in

total OIC imports of the product). The x-axis provides information on the current share of the

product in intra-OIC trade.

The y-axis provides information on the “growth rate of the OIC region’s imports” of the product

(i.e. the percentage growth rate of the OIC imports of the product). The y-axis provides a proxy

for the future growth of demand for the product. For the x-axis, the most up-to-date year, 2016,

is taken into account. For the y-axis, the growth rate is measured by Compound Annual Growth

Rate (CAGR) formula for the time period from 2008 to 2016. Moreover, the bubble sizes of each

product division represent the total import volume of the OIC member countries in 2016.

Table 3. 8 Potential Key Product Groups (Divisions) for Intra-OIC Trade Promotion

Division

% of

intraregional

trade in OIC

countries’

agricultural

imports, 2016

% growth rate of

the OIC imports,

CAGR, 2008-

2016

Total OIC

imports,

billion

USD, 2016

Threshold: %

of

intraregional

trade in OIC

countries’

total

agricultural

imports, 2016

Threshold: %

growth rate of

the OIC total

agricultural

imports, CAGR,

2008-2016

Sugars

16.7

9.3

13.7

24.2

4.3

Meat

12.8

5.9

12

Feeding

stuff for

animals

8.1

10.3

10.8

Oil-seeds

8.8

5.5

7.5

Live

animals

20.7

8.1

4.1

Source: CEPII BACI, Eurostat RAMON, UN Comtrade, UN Trade Statistics, and authors’ calculations

In this specific setup, a dashed line (i.e. a threshold) divides the x-axis. The threshold represents

the share of intra-OIC agricultural imports in total OIC agricultural imports in 2016. The product

divisions whose percentage shares in OIC imports are lower than percentage shares of overall

OIC agricultural imports are located on the left side of this threshold. In the case of the y-axis,

the threshold represents the growth rate of the OIC total agricultural imports, CAGR, 2008-2016.

The product divisions whose growth rates are higher than the OIC’s total agricultural import

basket are located on the upper side of this threshold. The key products for further analysis are

the ones with low intra-regional trade and high growth rate that are located on the upper left-

hand side of the graph (see Figure 3.13).