Increasing the Resilience of the Food Systems
In Islamic States in Face of Future Food Crises
2
the number of people suffering from hunger globally increased from 804million in 2016 to 821
million in 2017. 10
Population growth and climate change pose a substantial threat to global food system stability.
With the world population expected to increase from 7.6 billion in 2017 to 9.8 billion in 2050
and 11.2 billion in 2100, the demand for food and feed is expected to increase significantly.
Southern hemisphere countries are especially vulnerable to decreasing harvests and higher
frequencies of extreme weather events.11 After 2050, these and other effects of global climate
changemay become unmanageable, evenwith a slowing population growth rate. This is because
an increase in average temperatures could impact crop yields, which would disproportionately
affect poorer countries.12 There is also a risk of international adulteration of the food value
chain, which would necessitate defensive monitoring, prevention, and mitigation by
governments.
OIC countries face disproportionate risks for future food crises, with member states
predominantly affected by instability and drought. OIC countries perform the worst among all
country groups on environmental KPIs and have an acute risk of water shortages.13 The OIC is
also highly dependent on trade, and is particularly vulnerable to food price fluctuations, having
imported $117.2 billion in food and beverage products in 2018 and incurr ed a trade deficit of
$67 billion.14 Food price volatilitywas also confirmed as the top vulnerability among 150 survey
respondents, with 81% considering it the highest risk for future food crises . Despite a
commitment to more liberalized trade between member countries under the OIC Trade
Preferential System, trade still represents a challenge. With high barriers to trade between
member countries, intra-OIC trade in food and beverage reached $34 billion, exacerbating the
risk of food crises for the most vulnerable member countries.
This report establishes robust policy recommendations that can substantially enhance food
system sustainability across the OIC and which may be part of broader national economic
strategies involving strong private sector partnerships. The recommendations have been
developed based on extensive examination of the necessary components of food system
sustainability, with OIC countries benchmarked against global leaders and best practices in
establishing food system stability. The key findings that informed the recommendations were
synthesized leveraging a combination of case studies, primary interviews, and an OIC-wide
survey of food system stakeholders.
Establishing food system stability may require governments to undertake three broad steps: 1)
developing a clear understanding of the current state of food system stability; 2) establishing
processes to manage immediate and potential upcoming risks to stability; and 3) implementing
initiatives that underpin long-term stability.
10 FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP andWHO. (2018) The State of Food Security and Nutrition in theWorld 2018:Building climate
resilience for food security and nutrition.
11 FAO. (2009). How to Feed theWorld in 2050.
12 Nelson, Gerald, C. et al. (2010). Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050: Scenarios, Results, PolicyOptions.
IFPRI.
13 SESRIC. OIC Environment Report2017. Retrieved fro
14 ITC Trademap. (2017). Retrieved