COMCEC Tourism Outlook-2018
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Figure 0.1 Tourism Megatrends
Source: Horwath HTL, 2015
In addition to aging population, generation Y (also known as Millennials) and generation Z,
(known as iGen) are also an important market for tourism sector. These generations are
technology driven age groups. Among these, millennials are expected to represent 50% of all
travelers by 2025 and before that the entire tourism value chain is being adjusted to meet their
lifestyle requirements. To meet their needs, tourism services will be more transparent and tech
savvy, with a strong focus on empathy and customer connection. On the other hand, generation
Z is believed to be totally different from generation Y in so much as they already have higher
access to information, a more dynamic lifestyle, and a higher level of education, an accelerated
adoption of change and faster spending (Horwart HTL,2015).
The increase in average income and the fall in levels of absolute poverty are resulting in a
growing middle class. It is expected that the middle class will increase from 1.8 billion in 2009
to 3.2 billion by 2020 and 4.9 billion by 2030. Most of this growth is expected from Asia-Pacific
and this segment’s characteristics and needs will have a growing importance and impact on the
tourism products and services (Horwart HTL,2015).
The weight of emerging destinations in the international tourism market is increasing.
According to UNWTO; by 2030, 58% of international arrivals will be to the emerging
destinations.
Governments around the world are facing numerous political, social, economic and
environmental issues that might influence tourism destinations. Political tensions, terrorism
and civil riots impose a threat to the future of tourism in any destination. According to a research
by WTTC, the impact of these crises on tourism and the length of time needed to return to
previous levels differ widely depending on the type of crisis and other diverse factors. Whether
tourists are directly targeted or affected, which locations are involved, the extent of
infrastructural damage, the time of the year, as well as the scale and tone of media coverage are
the factors that affect the scale of their impact on tourism. In contrast to popular opinion,
terrorism does not have the most enduring impact, however political turmoil has a much more
gradual impact, often lasts for a long time and is difficult to judge when it is over. To be