COMCEC Tourism Outlook-2018
4
Overview of International Tourism in the World
Key Tourism Trends in the World
The last six decades have witnessed extraordinary growth in international tourism volume. In
spite of the multiple challenges and shocks –from human induced crises, to natural disasters;
tourism, although affected, has always bounced back, proving its resilience and capacity to
recover. During the next two decades tourism is expected to sustain its growth. International
tourist arrivals are estimated to increase on average by 43 million annually between 2010 and
2030 (Tourism Towards 2030, 2012).
The share of emerging economies in the international tourism market is increasing. This
increase will be slightly higher than the rate achieved in the period 1995-2010. For the decade
2010-2020, increases will be more moderate in the first years and pick up in the middle of the
period, and they will gradually slowdown. Over time, the rate of growth is expected to decrease
gradually, from 3.7% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2030. This is the result of a combination of four factors
(Tourism Towards 2030, 2012):
 The base volumes are higher, so smaller increases still add substantial numbers;
 Lower GDP growth, as economies mature;
 A lower elasticity of travel to GDP;
 Increasing transport costs.
Future arrivals will be spread wider across the globe and travel between regions will continue
to grow slightly faster than travel within the same region. The share of emerging economies in
the international tourismwill surpass the share of advanced ones. Many of the new arrivals will
be to destinations in Asia, Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, Africa and the Middle East.
The future brings enormous opportunities for tourism to take a central role in the political and
economic agenda, seeking recognition for its contribution to economic growth and
development. It also brings added challenges and responsibilities for tourism sector to take the
lead in mitigating its potential negative impacts on host communities and the environment
(Tourism Towards 2030, 2012).
Over the past six decades tourism has experienced a continued growth not only in traditional
destinations in Europe and North America but also in other parts of the world. According to
Tourism Towards 2030; by 2030, 58% of international arrivals will be recorded in the emerging
economy destinations of Asia, Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, Eastern
Mediterranean Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Asia and the Pacific will gain most of the new
arrivals. South Asia will be the sub-region with the fastest growth in international arrivals.
North-East Asia will be the most visited sub-region by 2030. With the advancements in aviation
technology and open skies agreements; air transport industry has substantially reduced travel
time and travel costs for long haul travel (Cetin et al., 2016). Air transport will continue to
increase its market share, but at a much slower pace. The cost of air transport will cease
declining, and is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1%per year from 2010 to 2030
(Tourism Towards 2030, 2012).