COMCEC Tourism Outlook-2019
10
The strong momentum in growth is expected to continue in 2019 based on 2018 and is expected
to be 4-5%, above the UNWTO’s long term projections (for 2030: +3.8% a year on average
between 2010 and 2020). International tourist arrivals already grew by 5% between January
and August 2019, compared to same period of last year. UNWTO forecasts international tourist
arrivals to increase by 4% to 5% over the full year 2019 (UNWTO, 2019a). Arrivals to Europe is
expected to rise by 3-4%, Americas by 2-3%, Asia and the Pacific by 5-6%, Africa by 3-5% and
Middle East by 4-6% in 2019.
Table 3.1 International Tourism Arrivals and Tourism Receipts
2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2018
Number of tourists
(millions of people)
674 809 953 1.189 1.322 1.401
Annual change (percent) 8,1 5,9 6,5 4,5 7 5,4
Tourism receipts
(billion dollars)
495 701 961 1.196 1332 1451
Annual change (percent) - - 11,7 -4,5 5 4,4
Source: World Tourism Organization
International tourism market has become characterized by wide geographical distribution and
continuous diversification of destinations. New destinations have been emerging in the
developing regions of Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and Africa and this rapid expansion of new
markets has increased the competition in the tourism sector.
While many destinations recorded an overall growth, results are more mixed than usual across
destinations. According to the UNWTO, growth rate in advanced economies (+4.3%) were below
the advanced economies (+6.8%), with Asia and the Pacific (+7,3%) and Africa (+7%) showing
the strongest results in 2018. In 2018, international tourist arrivals to advanced economies were
762 million, while it was 639 million for emerging economies.
In 2018, increasing GDP (3,6%), low interest rates, stable fuel prices, lower flights fares and
enlarging flight network, and enhanced visa facilitation has supported tourism growth.
As displayed on Figure 3.3, the growth of international tourist arrivals in emerging economies
is greater than advanced economies for the years 2007-2012. However, since 2013, advanced
economy destinations showed relatively faster growth in tourist arrivals than emerging
economy destinations up until 2017. In 2017 and 2018 emerging destinations performed well
with 8% and 7% growth respectively, while advanced economy destinations grew by 6% and
4%.