COMCEC Agriculture Outlook 2018
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For all three of the sub-regions, average yearly agricultural growths stayed behind their overall
economic growths during the 2004-2016 period. Nevertheless, in all three sub-regions,
agricultural growth rate during this period was higher compared to the world.
1.2. Population
Population in the world has reached 7.4 billion people and is projected to climb to over 9 billion
by 2050. United Nations Population Funds (UNFPA) explains this dramatic growth with
increasing numbers of people surviving to reproductive age which is accompanied by major
changes in fertility rates, increasing urbanization and accelerating migration.
According to Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) the total population of the OIC was about
1.78 billion in 2016. This constituted almost a quarter of the world population. Although its
share in total population has been decreasing from year to year, more than half of the OIC
member countries’ population is still living in rural areas. Furthermore, over 60 percent of the
people living in rural areas are engaged in agricultural activities.
Agriculture sector should provide enough food for the growing population in the world and
especially in the OIC. In the last decade, the agricultural GDP expanded globally by an average of
2.61 percent a year, more than the population growth of 1.26 percent. In the same period, OIC
Member Countries have experienced yearly 3.38 percent growth in agricultural GDP, and 2.02
percent of growth in population. Therefore, both in the OIC and world, the growth rate in
agriculture sector is higher than the growth rate in population which enables to feed much more
people.
Table 4. Population Growth Rate in the OIC and in the World
Period African Group Arab Group Asian Group OIC World
(1995-2005) 2.71 2.19 1.71 2.04 1.32
(2005-2016) 2.83 2.32 1.53 2.01 1.20
(1995-2016) 2.77 2.26 1.62 2.02 1.26
Source: Annex 7
Table 4 presents the sub-regional average yearly overall and agricultural growths in 10 year
periods within the last two decades in OIC member countries. Compared to the world, all three
OIC sub-regions have experienced higher rates of population growth in the last two decades.
Among the regions, African Group’s average yearly population growth was the highest in the
periods of 1995-2005 and 2005-2016, with 2.71 percent and 2.82 percent, respectively.
Furthermore, African Group was the only group whose average yearly population growth has
risen (more than two times higher than the world’s population growth= during the last decade.
The lowest population growth was observed in the Asian Group with 1.71 percent in 1995-2005,
and 1.53 percent in 2005-2016 periods.
While the rural population of the OIC member countries was 654 million people in 1990 with
62.9 percent share in total population, it increased to almost 901 million people, constituted
50.6 percent of the total OIC population in recent years. The main reason of decreasing the rural
population share was that the increase in rural population was lower than the increase in total
population throughout the years. This reflects that worldwide trend of urbanization is also
observable for the OIC member countries, in general.