Improving Transport Project Appraisals
In the Islamic Countries
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Risk assessment
In major projects (e.g. the Riyadh metro) a risk assessment is formally included, together with a
risk management plan. No evidence has been found, however, of established standards ensuring
the quality of the risk assessment’s methodology. In smaller projects (e.g. urban transport
masterplans for mid-size cities) the risk assessment is done informally and small-scale instead.
However, the future guidelines on CBA, cost-risk analysis and wider economic benefits is
expected to define a new framework for the risk assessment as well.
9.6 Demand analysis
Travel demand forecasting plays a key role in public transport masterplans prepared by the PTA.
After the development of a travel demand model (which is based mainly on household surveys,
roadside interviews and land use projections), the model itself is calibrated and validated. After
that, the current and future demand of transportation in the area is calculated. Based on this
demand analysis, alternative project options are subsequently identified and discussed.
The four-step travel demand model (i. Trip generation; ii. Trip distribution; iii. Mode choice; iv.
Trip assignment) is adopted as the approach to forecast travel demand.
As regards road transport, elements considered in the demand analysis include the city’s
expansion and expected mega-projects in the proximity of the road’s location. Simulations are
carried out (usually by external consultants) as part of the traffic demand forecasting.
However, as acknowledged by interviewed stakeholders, data- and statistics-related limitations
frequently reduce the accuracy of demand forecasts. The calibration and validation of models
carried out in urban transport masterplans, for instance, stem from an awareness by the PTA of
the limitation of forecasting models. Moreover, in order to avoid data-related issues, an
extensive data collection takes place before the MCA (through household surveys, roadside
interviews, etc.).
On this point, the landmark 2011 National Transportation Strategy acknowledged that the
country’s transport statistical information was not sufficient under neither a qualitative nor a
quantitative point of view. A comprehensive transport statistics system was accordingly
envisaged, based on a review of international best practices. Following this requirement, the
PTA and the Ministry of Transport will be commissioning studies to develop a transportation
database to support their work.
9.7 Results of project appraisal
Use of results
The results of project appraisal are used to enable a prioritisation of transport projects and to
provide a justification for the selection of individual projects. Moreover, appraisal results are
used to follow up on individual projects.