Improving Transport Project Appraisals
In the Islamic Countries
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Risk assessment
Risk assessment is integrated in the Terms of Reference of a feasibility study for private
consultants and as such is carried out on a structural basis for transport projects. It includes a
review of the critical elements of the project, sensitively assessment (what if investment costs
increase, what if construction is delayed, etc.), as well as definition of mitigating measures.
The LTNTS included a risk assessment section, with a range of risks identified, ranging from key
decision makers not interested to support creation and implementation of Jordan National
Transport Strategy to the regional developments. For each risk, the likelihood and impact were
identified, as well as preventing and mitigating measures.
6.6 Demand analysis
Demand analysis, as carrier for notably the benefits of the CBA, is normally part of the Terms of
Reference of the consultant supporting the project appraisal. As such, it is done on a structural
basis. For demand analysis, input van be derived from the transport forecast model, based on
VISUM, which was developed in order to provide quantitative input for the preparation of the
transport strategy (LTNTS). Although the transport model was transferred to MoT, it is not
actively used anymore. The VISUM programme requires specific skills, which are not available
at MoT. Transport models at urban level are available and applied by the private sector
consultants.
6.7 Result of project appraisal
Use of results
In general, project appraisal is used for justification of the implementation of a project, This is
done through CBA, notably on economic evaluation, focused on optimal social welfare or financial
evaluation, focused on maximum benefits to the private sector. Results of the CBA are expressed
in economic and financial Net Present Value (NPV) or Internal Rate of Return (IRR).
In the LTNLS, a MCA was applied to identify the optimal development scenario, consisting of a
blend of infrastructure and policy measures.
6.8 Follow-up and learning
Monitoring
Project monitoring is currently managed by the Transport Follow up and Evaluation Directorate
of MoT. Monitoring is done on a structural basis for all major projects.
At the transport strategy level, inputs were provided on a quarterly basis by each authority
responsible for project implementation through a web-based portal for evaluating the
implementation of projects.
Ex-post evaluation
Ex-post evaluation is not done on a structural basis, but may be carried out for selected major
projects.