Planning of National Transport Infrastructure
In the Islamic Countries
39
all modes of transport, and providing a sound, analytical basis for the choice of those policies
and projects”
Appraisal for the sake of project selection versus the objectives, and to assess value for money
Public consultation: feedback on working draft of the Master Plan. Over 100 meetings have been
held with representatives fromministry, operating companies and other stakeholders. Outcome
was identification of root cause of problem. Additional data received.
Strategic Environmental Assessment included in final version of Master Plan
Method: Reference case (p3) for the purpose of the computer based National transport Model
(EMME) with forecast years 2015, 2020, 2030 and 2040.
Cost estimates: high-level estimates, high-level uniform assumptions have been made on the
project costs (based on average values per km/type of infrastructure/type of terrain). Maximum
difference with detailed estimates of feasibility study: 25-30%
Estimates of economic benefits: high level, excluding intra zone impacts
Forecast method: following parameters from National Committee of Prognosis, EIU, IMF, OECD.
The main drivers of forecast demand are GDP, population, employment, economically active
population, and car ownership.
CBA methods: following European Commission guidelines, UNITE conventions and WebTAG
methodology. Threshold: economic discount rate (EIRR) of 3%, due to high level assessment,
normally 5%.
Time horizon is 15 years (2015-2030), except for airports, being 5 years (2015-2020), due to
higher uncertainty.
Prioritizing projects using CBA and MCA.
Compliance: Check whether MP meets the ex-ante conditionalities defined in the reference
document EUROPEAN COMMISSION, Directorate-General- Regional and Urban Policy, DRAFT
-“Guidance on Ex ante Conditionality for the European Structural and Investment Funds”, PART
II, “Criteria for fulfilment”
Two scenarios: “Economically Sustainable” Scenario, and an “Economically and
Environmentally Sustainable” Scenario.
Interventions resulting from the Master Plan include: a) Large infrastructure projects, b)
National Maintenance Programmes, c) New Rolling Stock and Locomotives, d) Large Scale
Rehabilitation projects, e) National Policies such as Rail Reform
Phase after Master Plan: detailed project feasibility studies for final decision (including option
analysis, cost, capacity economic and environmental impact analysis), also need of
reconfirmation of technical solutions, due to generic high level of master plan. Recommended
approach is that design should be such to allow for future developments.