Planning of National Transport Infrastructure

In the Islamic Countries



The planning horizon of the national plans;



Intervals between subsequent editions of the national plans;



The valuation of distant future versus short term effects via the discount rate;



The time horizon required or applied in the project appraisal.

The planning horizon of the national plans is 10 to 20 years for most of the non-OIC countries.

Some countries apply a longer planning horizon, with outliers to 5 and to 40 years. For OIC

countries the horizons applied are 4 to 15 years with outliers to 30 years. Below is a list of non-

OIC countries and their NTI planning horizons:



Australia generally 30 years, 10 years for Intelligent Transport Systems, 30 years for

road, 50 years for rail;



Belarus National Infrastructure Plan 15 years;



Belgium Long term transport prognosis 20 years;



Netherlands 30-35 years;



Norway National Transport Plan 13 years;



South Africa National Transport Master Plan11 40 years;



Singapore National Land Transport Master Plan 20 years;



United Kingdom National Transport Plan12 10 years.

Many EU countries do have a

multiannual-planning horizon

. This results in relatively high

efficiency and low expenses, enabling operational planning for all involved. Disadvantage

however is rigidity. As plans do stretch over many years changes are hard to make. Changes can

be required due to technological change (IoT, block chain), demographic, climate or economic

developments. In 2017, the Netherlands Central Planning Bureau has developed a set of

measures aiming at creating agility and flexibility (dynamic or

adaptive programming

), to be

incorporated in the planning and selection procedures (Netherlands, 2017). This agility allows

for changes in timing, in scaling and in configuration, and allows for new insights.

Many countries regularly publish national plans, visions and strategies. However, only few of

them do this in a well-structured way and with consequent

time intervals

. It is part of their

administrative standard procedure. The number of countries that publish national transport

infrastructure (master) plans tends to decrease. NTI plans are being more and more replaced by

a variety of integral plans and visions with a national scope. While most of transport

infrastructure (master) plans are of regional scope.

Discount rate

, revealing the orientation or valuation of present versus future: There is a

distinction between financial discount rate and social discount rate (European Commission,

2014).

The discount rate is an important element outside OIC Geography. In OIC Countries it is merely not applied.

The time horizon in project appraisal is an important element outside OIC Geography. In OIC Countries it is merely not

applied.