Urban Transport in the OIC Megacities
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It is noted however, that the contribution of technological innovation to urban sustainability through
changes in the use of automobile has also been widely criticized. Technological innovation is often
undermined by the increased use of cars while diesel engines continue to increase their market share.
Ultimately, the take-up of alternative fuels is hampered by oil prices. Whilst oil remains affordable,
alternative fuels are viewed as expensive and unnecessary, often requiring government subsidies. At
the same time, estimates from the IPCC suggest that even with current technologies, carbon emissions
per vehicle kilometer could be reduced by 30 – 50 percent between 2010 and 2030 through energy
efficiency and performance improvements. In addition, transport policies that have been widely
supporting technological innovation for vehicles and fuels as they only cause a minor disruption to
the current unsustainable mobility practices and sustain current market forces. Therefore, beyond
simply introducing cutting edge technologies to cities, it is the rate of innovatively adopting and
scaling technologies, combined with a broader sociotechnical transition, which determines whether
or not development pathways can be sustainably transformed (Chapman, 2007; Schwanen et al, 2011;
Rode et al, 2014).
3.4.1.2. Private motorized transport in megacities in developing countries
While car ownership levels are approaching saturation in developed economies, motorization
continues to grow in developing countries. By 2050, the number of motor vehicles worldwide is
projected to reach 2.6 billion, the majority of which is expected to be found in developing countries,
especially China, India and other Asian countries. In some rapidly emerging economies like India, the
number of trucks, cars and motor scooters added to city streets each year is growing at more than 20
percent annually (Cervero, 2013).
The combination of rapid motorization, rising incomes, urban sprawl, undeveloped road systems and
spatial mismatches have given a rise to the world’s worst traffic conditions in cities of the developing
world. Time losses from traffic congestion account for 2 percent of the GDP in Europe and 2-5 percent
in Asia while the externalities of traffic congestion in Metro Manila, Dakar and Abidjan have been
estimated at nearly 5 percent of those cities’ GDPs (Cervero, 2013).
Income inequality plays a significant role in changes in motorization levels. Although a positive
relationship between inequality and car ownership is currently observed, it can inverse as countries
develop and overall incomes rise. In poor countries with unequal distribution of wealth, as income
grows the poor may still not be able to reach a certain minimum level of income that is necessary to
buy and maintain a car. However, in countries with more evenly distributed income levels and larger
middle income class, benefits accrue broadly across the population of commuters, pushing the bulk of
the middle class into cars. For example, low income countries with high levels of inequality such as
Bolivia have higher car ownership levels than more equal low income countries such as the
Philippines. However, for middle income countries this trend changes and more equal countries such
as Russia have higher car ownership levels than middle income, unequal countries such as Colombia
(Kutzbach, 2010).
Although vehicle ownership rates in developing nations are low compared to wealthy ones, they lead
to far worse traffic congestion and air pollution due to the lack of appropriate regulation,
infrastructure and traffic management. There are nine cars per 1000 people in China, compared with
700 per 1000 in the United States and 500 per 1000 in Western Europe. In addition, extreme
congestion conditions are common despite the modal share of private vehicles. For example, in China,
50 percent of all urban trips are made by public transport and another 40 percent are made bywalking
and cycling. In Delhi, only 5 percent of total trips are taken by car, while 15 percent are by motorcycle,
42 percent on public transport, and 39 percent by walking (Ng and Schipper, 2005; Badami et al.,
2004).
Particularly in Asian megacities, rapid motorization is mainly characterized by an increase in number
of motorcycles and scooters, which are the dominant modes of transport. Besides deteriorating
congestion, they can be exceedingly loud, contribute to traffic accidents, take over sidewalks, and