Facilitating Trade:
Improving Customs Risk Management Systems
In the OIC Member States
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Reliability centered maintenance, Risk Indices, Root cause analysis, Scenario analysis, Structure
“What if?” (SWIFT), Human reliability analysis, Reliability centered maintenance,
Consequence/probability matrix, and Fault tree analysis.
Risk Evaluation and Prioritization: WCO Risk Management Compendium (Volume 1) talks about
the following techniques and tools that can be used in this stage of the CRM: Threat analysis,
SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats), Fault tree analysis, FMEA
(Failure Mode & Effect Analysis), BPEST (Business, Political, Economic, Social, Technological)
analysis, PESTLE (Political Economic Social Technical Legal Environmental), Dependency
modeling and Real Option Modelling; Statistical Modelling.
To measure the possibilities of the risk in an uncertain environment, the CRM can use the Monte
Carlo simulation83. CRM can use Monte Carlo simulation to generate a large number of scenarios
based on known probabilities for inputs. This technique randomly generates values for each of
the unknown variables in given range. In such a way the CRM can easily compute outcome for
each of the thousands of scenarios. The CRM can calculate the probability of risk events as some
non-compliant scenarios divided by randomly generated variables.
Figure 52: Example of Monte Carlo simulation results
Author’s compilation
Data Mining is a technique that can be used for risk analysis, recommended by the WCO Risk
Management Compendium. WCO is defining the data mining as the nontrivial extraction of
implicit, previously unknown, and potentially useful information from data . Data Mining
automates the detection of some trends or patterns of behavior within a large amount of data.
Based on a specific algorithm, DM can recognize certain future trends. CRM needs extraction of
the knowledge in the form of information. Possible data mining sources of information are:
LE/intelligence database, seizures database, offenses database, criminal reports, CEN, websites
(information that can be of interest to the CRM, from news sites, forums, social networks, etc.),
data from video monitoring system as entry/exit of means of transport across the border, etc.
Game Theory CRM - tools that can be used to predict and quantify these issues using the game
theory, not covered as a CRM technique in ISO Standard 31010:2009;
Policy Option 3: Regular and ad-hoc review and updating of the risk profiles/indicators;
The CAs must review the risk profile at regular intervals to ensure that it is always up to date
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