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Reviewing Agricultural Trade Policies

To Promote Intra-OIC Agricultural Trade

13

European Commission Market Access Database Trade Barrier: It is not developed for

downloading data.

WTO I-TIP: It has missing OIC countries (i.e. Azerbaijan, Comoros, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon,

Libya, Palestine, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan). It takes time to

download and aggregate the data. Crossed queries for specific product, country, and

non-tariff measures are possible.

WTO I-TIP database is employed as a source of NTMs. Even though there are some drawbacks,

it allows the aggregation process.

1.2. Methodology

In this study, most of the quantitative analyses are based on descriptive statistics with a

benchmarking approach. In brief, there are complementary approaches employed in (i) analysis

of agricultural trade flows and (ii) review of agricultural trade policies. Below, approaches and

methodologies employed in respective analyses are explained.

1.2.1. Analysis of Agricultural Trade Flows

In the case of descriptive studies, major trade blocs are used as the main reference point in

benchmarking. These major trade blocs are chosen as EU-28, ASEAN, NAFTA, MERCOSUR, and

OIC considering the differences in their regional integration levels, their geographic positions in

the world, and their shares in the total agricultural trade flows. Moreover, three subsets of OIC

countries (Africa, Asia and Arab countries) are used as the reference country groups which are

shared in Annex A.

In the case of products, agricultural products covering agri-food products, agricultural raw

materials, and fish products as grouped in Annex B is employed as the unit of analyses. Taking

into consideration the country and product groups, top to down approach is employed as each

chapter firstly focuses on general trends, and continues with detailed analyses. As trend

analyses are conducted for the time period from 2008 to 2016, standing out products and

countries are identified considering the last 3 years (2014-2015-2016) average. Moreover, in

order to identify standing out countries and products, top 5 products/countries are shortlisted

considering their share from the respective total for the disaggregated level of analyses. In order

to understand the overall trends, both export and import trends are evaluated.

In order to identify unexploited potentials trade matches, a simple graphical layout (quadrant

scatter graph) is implemented to highlight the key products that can be targeted in promoting

intra-OIC agricultural trade. The central idea of the scatter graph layout is to identify products

simultaneously through information gathered from x-axis and y-axis. In this specific layout,

“percentage of coverage of the region's imports” is taken as x-axis while it provides information

on the current level of intraregional trade. Secondly, “growth rate of the region’s import” is taken

as y-axis while it proxies the future demand. Technically, the growth rate is measured by

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) formula for the time period from 2008 to 2016. In the

case of x-axis and y-axis, last 3 year averages are taken for the time period from 2014 to 2016.

Moreover, the bubble sizes of each product represent the total average global trade volume

between 2014 and 2016.

Through the quadrant analysis, products with low levels of regional integration and higher

growth rates are highlighted in the upper left-hand side. Furthermore, considering their bubble

size - volume of global demand-, top 3 products are selected. Country pairs most likely to be

successful to promote intra-regional trade are identified through Sankey diagrams in which