Barriers and Opportunities for Enhancing Capital Flows
In the COMCEC Member Countries
102
 If deficit between 4.1% and 5% of GDP
 If deficit more than 5% of GDP
6. Assess the quality of macroeconomic policymaking
 Exemplary record of consistently prudent and
successful policymaking
 Macroeconomic policies are solid, but could benefit
from some reforms
 Suboptimal fiscal/monetary policy mix; increases
exposure to external shocks
 Macroeconomic policies are inconsistent with
sustained stability
 Very serious deficiencies in policymaking
Consider the quality of fiscal and monetary policy
management. Is it prudent, consistent and credible? Is the
mix appropriate? Does monetary policy need to be
excessively tight to offset fiscal laxity?
7. Assess the extent and depth of the institutional
underpinnings for macroeconomic stability
 Long-established and strong; independent central
bank
 Solid institutional underpinnings; central bank
formally autonomous, but subject to political pressure
 Moderate institutional underpinnings; central bank
subject to strong political pressure
 Weak institutional underpinnings, central bank not
independent
 Very weak institutional underpinnings;
governments dictate monetary policy
Consider the degree of independence of the central bank.
How strong are informal pressures on the monetary
authorities to prioritise short-term growth over stability.
Consider the track record of successful implementation and
commitment to IMF programme. If part of a currency union,
question refers to the common monetary authority.
8. Assess the risk of a steep decline in asset prices (property,
shares, bonds)
 Very high  High  Moderate  Low 
Very low