COMCEC Tourism Outlook-2016
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different business models, some of which closely pattern traditional tourism activities, while
others appeal to users’ sense of community (OECD, 2016).
This rapid growth of the sharing economy is placing pressure on existing tourism policy
frameworks. This requires a balanced, informed approach, which considers all interests. Tourist
protection, safety and quality assurance frameworks are important factors to translate to the
sharing economy model. Governments should make sure that they capture the opportunity to
stimulate innovation and support the development of tourism, while addressing the challenges
it poses for the traditional tourism sector and the impacts on society (OECD, 2016).
Governments are recommended to modernize policy and regulatory approaches, re-think policy
incentives, better understand the policy environment and test new approaches, utilize the data,
strengthen data collection and research on the impacts of the sharing economy on tourism and
local communities (OECD, 2016).
Economic, social and environmental pillars have to be balanced in order to ensure the long-term
sustainable development of tourism. Sustainable tourism development requires the
participation of all relevant stakeholders.
3.2 International Tourist Arrivals
According to the UNWTO, international tourist arrivals grew 4.6% in 2015, equivalent to 52
million more arrivals and reached to 1.186 million tourists. Despite occasional shocks,
international tourist arrivals have shown virtually uninterrupted growth – from 277 million in
1980 to 529 million in 1995 and 1.186 million in 2015 (UNWTO, 2016b). 2015 was the sixth
consecutive year of above-average growth in international tourism following the 2009 global
economic crisis. Despite ongoing geopolitical, economic and health challenges in some parts of
the world, demand continued to be strong in most of the destinations.
Tourism flows were influenced by three major factors in 2015. These were the unusual strong
fluctuations in exchange rates, decline in the price of oil and other commodities which increased
disposable income in importing countries but weakened demand in exporting countries and
increased global concern about safety and security in some destinations (UNWTO, 2016a).
Growth is expected to continue in 2016 according to the 2015 level and will be above the
UNWTO’s long term projections (for 2030: +3.8% a year on average between 2010 and 2020).
International tourist arrivals grew by 5.3% between January and April 2016, meaning of 18
million more arrivals compared to same period of last year. UNWTO forecasts international
tourist arrivals to increase by 3.5% to 4.5% over the full year 2016 (UNWTO, 2016a)
Table 3.1 International Tourism Arrivals and Tourism Receipts
2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016*
Number of tourists
(millions of people)
674 809 950 1.134 1.186 1.235
Annual change (percent) 8,1 5,9 6,5 4,2 4,6 3,5-4,5
Tourism receipts
(billion dollars)
476 681 931 1.309 1.260 -
Annual change (percent) - - 9,4 5,1 4,4 -
* Forecast
Source: World Tourism Organization