COMCEC Tourism Outlook-2016
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3 Overview of International Tourism in the World
3.1 Key Tourism Trends in the World
The last six decades have witnessed extraordinary growth of tourism sector. In spite of the
multiple challenges and shocks –from man-made crises, to natural disasters and economic
crises, from which the world is still recovering– tourism, although vulnerable, has always
bounced back, proving its resilience and capacity to rebound. The next two decades will be of
sustained growth for the tourism sector. International tourist arrivals are estimated to increase
on average by 43 million annually between 2010 and 2030 (Tourism Towards 2030, 2012).
The share of emerging economies in the international tourism market is increasing. This
increase will be slightly higher than the rate achieved in the period 1995-2010. For the decade
2010-2020, increases will be more moderate in the first years and pick up in the middle of the
period, and they will gradually slowdown. Over time, the rate of growth is slowing down
gradually, from 3.7% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2030. This is the result of a combination of four factors
(Tourism Towards 2030, 2012):
 The base volumes are higher, so smaller increases still add substantial numbers;
 Lower GDP growth, as economies mature;
 A lower elasticity of travel to GDP;
 Increasing transport costs.
Future arrivals will be spread more widely across the globe and travel between regions will
continue to grow slightly faster than travel within the same region. The share of emerging
economies in the international tourism will surpass the share of advanced ones. Many of the
new arrivals will be to destinations in Asia, Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, Africa
and the Middle East. The future brings enormous opportunities for tourism to take centre stage
in the political and economic agenda, seeking recognition for its contribution to economic
growth and development. It also brings added challenges and responsibilities for tourism sector
to take the lead in mitigating its potential negative impacts on host communities and the
environment (Tourism Towards 2030, 2012).
According to Tourism Towards 2030; by 2030, 58% of international arrivals will be recorded in
the emerging economy destinations of Asia, Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, Eastern
Mediterranean Europe, the Middle East and Africa (Tourism Towards 2030, 2012).
Asia and the Pacific will gain most of the new arrivals. South Asia will be the sub-region with the
fastest growth in international arrivals. North-East Asia will be the most visited sub-region in
2030 (Tourism Towards 2030, 2012).
It is known that air transport industry has substantially reduced travel time and travel costs for
longer haul travel. Air transport will continue to increase its market share, but at a much slower
pace. The cost of air transport will cease declining, and is assumed to grow at an average annual
rate of 1.1% per year from 2010 to 2030 (Tourism Towards 2030, 2012).