COMCEC Tourism Outlook 2017
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incidents and travel warnings in source markets, Egypt recorded a 42% decline in 2016. The
recent security problems have weighed down on tourist demand in the region, as have health
concerns in the aftermath of the Ebola outbreak in a few West African destinations. Slower
economic growth in countries depending on oil and commodity exports has also weakened
intraregional demand.
To analyze the tourism trends in these regions, it would be useful to compare the results of the
last decade. The figure below compares the shares of tourist arrivals by regions for the years
2000 and 2016.
Figure 3.4 Tourist Arrivals by Region (2000-2016)
Source: UNWTO, 2017
The figure demonstrates that there is a tendency of increase in tourist arrivals in Asia-Pacific
Region and decrease in Europe and Americas Region.
According to Tourism Towards 2030, UNWTO’s long-term outlook and assessment of future
tourism trends, the number of international tourist arrivals is expected to increase by 3.3% a
year on average from 2010 to 2030. This represents some 43 million more international tourist
arrivals every year, reaching a total of 1.4 billion arrivals by 2020, 1.5 billion arrivals by 2023
and 1.8 billion by 2030.
International tourist arrivals in the emerging-economy destinations of Asia, Latin America,
Central and Eastern Europe, Eastern Mediterranean Europe, the Middle East, and Africa will
grow at double the pace (4.4 percent a year) of advanced-economy destinations (2.2 percent a
year). Emerging economies’ annual growth rate is 4,5% while arrivals to advanced economies
only grew by 3,5%. The market share of emerging economies increased from 30% in 1980 to
45% in 2016, and is expected to reach 57% by 2030, equivalent to over 1 billion international
tourists.
3.3 International Tourism Receipts
As an internationally traded service, inbound tourismhas become one of the world’s major trade
categories. International tourism accounts for 30% of the world’s export of services and 7% of
overall exports and goods and services. Tourism has been growing faster than global trade for
the past five years. International tourism receipts are the earnings generated in receiving
countries from expenditures of international visitors on accommodation, food and drink, local
transport, entertainment, shopping and other services and goods. For the receiving country
Africa
4% Americas
19%
Asia/
Pacific
16%
Europe
57%
Middle
East
4%
2000
Africa 5%
Americas
16%
Asia/
Pacific
25%
Europe
50%
Middle
East
4%
2016