Forced Migration in the OIC Member Countries:
Policy Framework Adopted by Host Countries
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2.6.1. Migration dynamics in Central Asia
The bulk of forced migration flows has typically remained bounded by two somewhat
culturally distinct sub-regions: Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran in South Central Asia and the
former Soviet republics of North Central Asia. Forced migration in South Central Asia has been
largely driven by protracted conflict, while the republics of North Central Asia have been more
vulnerable to brief outbursts of ethnic violence.
Conflict as the primary driver of forced migration in South Central Asia
The largest driver of forced migration in South Central Asia remains ongoing ethnic, political,
and religious violence in South Central Asia, which has flared on and off since the Soviet
invasion of Afghanistan in 1978. Refugee levels from Afghanistan peaked at over six million in
the late 1980’s, and 3.6 million were still refugees when the U.S. invaded Afghanistan in
2001.185
Despite the drawdown of international troops at the end of 2014, much of Afghanistan
remains insecure: Afghanistan’s minister for refugees and repatriation warned in April 2015
that 80 percent of the country was still unsafe for return.186 In fact, more people were
displaced within the country due to conflict in 2015 than in any year since 2002.187 While the
majority of flows within the region have originated from Afghanistan, security operations in
2014 also displaced Pakistanis, causing many to seek refuge in Afghanistan or elsewhere in
Pakistan.188 Many of the displaced persons in the Federally Administered Tribal Area of the
country have since returned to their origin communities as of 2016.189
As Afghanistan recovers from the war and combats insurgent groups and some refugees have
returned home, the state has experienced further difficulty in constructing and maintaining an
economy that offers sufficient livelihood opportunities for its inhabitants. Afghanistan’s
economic woes were worsened further when most U.S. troops were withdrawn in 2015,
taking away the stimulus of the war economy with them.190 This bleak economic picture has
pushed many to seek opportunities abroad, once again reaffirming the tenuous distinction
between economic and forced migration.
Perpetual conflict and a weak economy have also weakened the resilience of Afghan
communities to cope with drought and other environmental disasters. In Afghanistan,
droughts, floods, landslides, earthquakes, and avalanches have displaced approximately
185 Hiram Ruiz, “Afghanistan: conflict and displacement 1978 to 2001” Forced Migration Review, no. 13 (2002), 8-10,
186 Alan Travis, “Judge blocks deportation flight for rejected Afghan asylum-seekers,” The Guardian , April 22, 2015,
187 Human Rights Watch, “Afghanistan: Events of 2015,” updated January 27, 2016,
188 IRIN, “Afghanistan becomes unlikely safe haven for Pakistani refugees,” updated July 1, 2014,
189 FATA Secretariat, FATA Sustainable Return and Rehabilitation Strategy (FATA Secretariat, 2015), 19-20,
The News,
“Fourth phase of TDPs’ return to South Waziristan under way: official,”The News, October 24, 2016,
190 For example, it was estimated that Afghanistan’s transportation sector, which accounted for about 22 percent of the
country’s GDP, lost 100,000 jobs. The construction and services sector were also hard hit by the drawdown of international
troops. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, January 30,
2016 (Arlington, Virginia: Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, 2016), 1-14,