Improving Transport Project Appraisals
In the Islamic Countries
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Time savings are monetised using Value of Time. In the Transport Master Plan for Greater
Maputo, the Value of Time was estimated based on per capita GDP in the study area, price
inflation and estimated GDP per capita growth. In the master plan, Vehicle Operating Costs
(VOC) were estimated based upon the UK’s WebTAG advisory guidance, which covers the build-
up of VOC for urban transport models and also upon the WB’s HDM-4 model.
Costs and benefits
The economic costs consist of the capital investment costs and the routine and periodic
maintenance expenses. For road projects, the benefits considered in the economic evaluation
include road user benefits in terms of vehicle operating cost savings and time savings accruing
to normal, generated and diverted traffic on the road project sections. There could also be
induced benefits that will be realized such as agricultural surpluses, however these are not
considered in the analysis as they do not represent main stream of benefits.
Risk assessment
The CBA is combined with a sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity analysis can for example
comprise three tests:
1. Increase in initial costs by 10%
2. Decrease of benefits by 10%
3. Combination of the above
7.6 Demand analysis
To forecast the traffic demand, a forecasting model is used. Input for this model could be results
from a household interview survey. A random sample of households is used to collect
information on trip mode and trip purpose. Based on this analysis, Origin-Destination matrices
by trip purpose and trip mode can be developed. This data is used to predict future travel
patterns llustrates the resultant impacts on travel patterns in 2035 and how these
compare to 2012 trends for Maputo, Mozambique.