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2. The COMCEC Agriculture Outlook 2019
Prof. Hami ALPAS, Consultant at the COMCEC Coordination Office, summarized the key features of
COMCEC Agriculture Outlook 2019, which was published in October 2019.
Prof. ALPAS informed the participants that his presentation addressed four main components,
namely macro indicators, selected sectoral indicators and state of food security as well as climate
change as the main driver of food insecurity.
Regarding progress in terms of macro agricultural indicators, he expressed that the top ten OIC
member countries produced nearly 80% of the total agricultural value added in the OIC region. He
added that Indonesia alone accounted for nearly 20% of OIC agricultural GDP. Regarding trends
in growth rates, he highlighted that, over the last two decades, both agriculture (3.4) and overall
economy (4.4) of OIC grew faster than the world (2.7 and 2.6). Average annual agricultural
growth rate between 1994 and 2016 was highest in Africa, followed by Arab and Asian groups.
With respect to overall economic growth, the African group had again highest growth followed by
Asia and Arab groups.
Prof. ALPAS pointed out that over the last three decades the share of agricultural employment in
total employment has decreased substantially from 48% to 27% in the world and from 53% to
36% in OIC member countries. The share of agricultural employment is still 33% higher in OIC
member countries than the world average.
Prof. ALPAS stressed that, in 2017, OIC agricultural exports amounted to 141 billion USD and
were 66% of the imports, which amounted to 215 billion USD. He added that while the volume of
trade nearly doubled over the last two decades, export/import ratio which jumped to 80% in the
second half of 2000 fell back to its early 2000 level of 66%. The share of OIC in world agricultural
exports nearly doubled from 6% to 10% in the first decade of the 21st century and fell gradually to
9% in the second decade. The share of OIC in world agricultural imports increased from 8% to
13.5% from 2000 to 2015 and fell gradually to 12.8% during the last three years.
Prof. ALPAS stated that 69% of agricultural exports are realized by Asian Group while Arab and
African Groups follow with shares of 21% and 11% respectively. On the other hand, 50% of
imports are realized by Arab Group followed by Asian Group with 43% and African Group
realizing the remaining 8%. Arab and African Groups registered trade deficit in agriculture, and
the Asian Group enjoyed a small trade surplus. The OIC agricultural trade deficit mainly comes
from the Arab Group.
Moreover, Prof. ALPAS underlined that in 2017 OIC member countries produce 15% of world
cereals, 34% of oilcrops, 19% of fruits and 14% of world vegetables. With the exception of
oilcrops shares, production volume, in general, remained the same over the last 15 years. He
added that OIC member countries produce 14% of the world’s beef and buffalo meat, 37% of
sheep and goat meat and 12% of poultry meat. The share of OIC member countries in the world
production of beef and poultry have significantly increased during the last decade and a half,
while the growth rate in case of sheep and goat meat have been parallel to the world average. OIC
member countries are responsible for 20% of world’s non-capture fish production and 18% of
capture fish production. OIC shares in both capture and non-capture fish productıon have
increased significantly over the last 15 years. The share of non-capture fisheries production in the
world has increased from a level of 31% in 2000 to 53 % in 2015 while the one for OIC showed an
increase from 16 to 54 % during the same period.
Prof. ALPAS expressed that almost one third of all agricultural area and over one fifth of the arable
area in the world are in OIC member countries. While for Africa and Asia total land and