COMCEC Transport and Communications
Outlook 2016
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2. TRANSPORT, LOGISTICS, AND TRADE
The increased per capita income and mobility needs of the households, trade globalization,
deregulation and privatization trends in transportation infrastructure and services, and the
technological progress in vehicle technology have all contributed to the high growth rate of the
transportation industry.
ITF estimates that the trade related international freight will grow by a factor of 4.3 by 2050.
Maritime transport is more characterized bymovement of freights as almost 85%of global trade
is carried by sea in terms of weight. Therefore, increasing international trade will result in
unprecedented challenges for the transport infrastructure, especially for ports. According to ITF
projections, port volumes are expected to increase nearly fourfold by 2050 (OECD/ITF, 2015).
In fact, Infrastructure to 2030 (OECD, 2012) argues that worldwide container throughput could
quadruple even by 2030.
With regard to the surface transport, worldwide road and rail passenger travel is expected to
grow around 120% to 230% until 2050, whereas this growth is expected to range from 240%
to 450% for non-OECD economies. Besides, the global road and rail freight transport is projected
to increase by 230% to 420% (OECD/ITF, 2015).
Infrastructure to 2030 concludes that global transport and distribution infrastructure
investment needs, i.e. airports, ports, rail, and oil and gas, may exceed USD 11 trillion over 2009-
2030 period. As major infrastructure can take around 10 to 20 years to plan and implement,
countries that want to develop their infrastructure at the right time and location will need to get
two crucial things right, i.e. national policy frameworks and assured funding (OECD, 2012).