Proceedings of the 13 th Meeting of the
COMCEC Agriculture Working Group
7
2. The COMCEC Agriculture Outlook 2018
Prof. Haluk KASNAKOĞLU, Consultant at the COMCEC Coordination Office, summarized the key
features of COMCEC Agriculture Outlook 2018, which was published in August 2018.
Prof. KASNAKOĞLU informed the participants that his presentation addressed three main
components, namely macro indicators, selected sectoral indicators and state of food security.
Regarding progress in terms of macro agricultural indicators, he expressed that over the last three
decades, OIC’s agricultural value added increased to 649 Billion US Dollar with a share of 20 percent
from 186 Billion US Dollar with a share of 16 percent. In terms of OIC groups, he emphasized that
more than half of the value added in 2016 was made by Asian Group while African Group was the
one that increased its share most among these three groups.
Furthermore, Prof. KASNAKOĞLU stated that the top ten OIC member countries produced nearly
80% of the total agricultural value added in the OIC region. He added that Indonesia alone
accounted for nearly 20% of OIC agricultural GDP and among these countries, agriculture
constituted between 6% to 27%of their total GDP. Regarding trends in growth rates, he highlighted
that, over the last two decades, both agriculture (3.4) and overall economy (4.4) of OIC grew faster
than the world (2.7 and 2.6). Average annual agricultural growth rate between 1994 and 2016 was
highest in Africa, followed by Arab and Asian groups. With respect to overall economic growth, the
African group had again highest growth followed by Asia and Arab groups.
Prof. KASNAKOĞLU pointed out that over the last three decades the share of agricultural
employment in total employment has decreased substantially from 48% to 27% in the world and
from 53% to 36% in OIC member countries. The share of agricultural employment is still 33%
higher in OIC member countries than the world average.
Prof. KASNAKOĞLU stressed that, in 2017, OIC agricultural exports amounted to 141 billion USD
and were 66% of the imports, which amounted to 215 billion USD. He added that while the volume
of trade nearly doubled over the last two decades, export/import ratio which jumped to 80% in the
second half of 2000 fell back to its early 2000 level of 66%. The share of OIC in world agricultural
exports nearly doubled from 6% to 10% in the first decade of the 21st century and fell gradually to
9% in the second decade. The share of OIC in world agricultural imports increased from 8% to
13.5% from 2000 to 2015 and fell gradually to 12.8% during the last three years.
Prof. KASNAKOĞLU stated that 69% of agricultural exports are realized by Asian Group while Arab
and African Groups follow with shares of 21% and 11% respectively. On the other hand, 50% of
imports are realized by Arab Group followed by Asian Group with 43% and African Group realizing
the remaining 8%. Arab and African Groups registered trade deficit in agriculture, and the Asian
Group enjoyed a small trade surplus. The OIC agricultural trade deficit mainly comes from the Arab
Group.
Moreover, Prof. KASNAKOĞLU underlined that OIC member countries produce 15% of world
cereals, 34% of oilcrops, 19% of fruits and 14% of world vegetables. With the exception of oilcrops
shares, production volume, in general, remained the same over the last 15 years. He added that OIC
member countries produce 14% of the world’s beef and buffalo meat, 37% of sheep and goat meat
and 12% of poultry meat. The share of OIC member countries in the world production of beef and
poultry have significantly increased during the last decade and a half, while the growth rate in case
of sheep and goat meat have been parallel to the world average. OIC member countries are
responsible for 20% of world’s non-capture fish production and 18% of capture fish production.
OIC shares in both capture and non-capture fish productıon have increased significantly over the
last 15 years. The share of non-capture fisheries production in the world has increased from a level