COMCEC Trade Outlook 2017
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1. DEVELOPMENTS IN GLOBAL TRADE
World merchandise trade (in dollar terms) grew at an annual average rate of 12.2 per cent
between 2000 and 2008 period. Although world trade rebounded rapidly following the global
crisis, it has been weak since 2012. World trade declined by 3.3 per cent in 2016 following the
sharp decline of 13 percent in 2015 thus falling to 16.0 trillion US dollars down from 16.5 trillion
US dollars in 2015.
Figure 1: Global Trade
Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics
World trade volume (accounted for changes in prices and exchange rates) slowed to 1.3 per cent
in 2016 from 2.6 per cent in 2015. This was the weakest growth recorded since the global crisis
and the growth rates of world trade were below the pre-crisis average of 6 percent (1990-2007)
in the last five years as shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2: World Export Volume
Source: WTO
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
World Exports World Imports Annual Growth
Trillion US $
Per cent
100
150
200
250
300
350
199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
index 1990=100
Trend